Who wins and who lose with the new commercial agreement between the US and the European Union

Most analysts believe that the EU has yielded more, and a first economic capital analysis suggests a 0.5% drop in European GDP.

It is also expected that tens of billions of dollars enter the American coffers for import taxes.

However, Trump's favorable holders could change if the numerous economic data published this week show adverse effects of their drastic restructuring of the US economy.

The figures on inflation, employment, growth and confidence of the consumer will provide a clearer image to assess whether Trump tariffs are generating more benefits or damages.

The citizens on foot in the US are already upset by the increase in the cost of living and this agreement could aggravate the situation by making European products more expensive.

Although they could have been higher, 15% tariffs are considered significant and suppose a much greater obstacle than the one that existed before Trump's return to the presidency.

Tariffs are taxes applied to goods bought abroad and, usually, are calculated as a percentage of the product value.

Thus, a 15% tariff implies that a product of $ 100 imported from the EU will have an additional tax of $ 15, raising to $ 115 the total cost for the importer.

Companies that import foreign products to the US must pay that government tax and, frequently, transfer a part or totality to consumers.

Asia and Europe's bags, as well as Wall Street, uploaded the framework of the agreement on Monday.

According to the text, the US will apply a 15% tariff to the imported products from the EU.

Although it is a considerable rate, it is less than it could have been and at least offers certainty to investors.

“The agreement is clearly favorable for markets and should further boost the euro,” said Chris Weston, of the Australian firm Pepperstone, to the AFP agency.

The agreement must be approved by the 27 members of the EU, each with different interests and degrees of dependence on the export of goods to the US.

While some countries have received the agreement with caution, others have been critical, hinting divisions within the block, also immersed in the response to other crises such as the current war in Ukraine.

The French prime minister, François Bayrou, commented: “It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, gathered to affirm their common values and defend their shared interests, resigns submission.”

At least two French government ministers were added to his words, as well as the Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, who said Trump “had breakfast to Von der Leyen.”

The tariff faced by US importers of EU cars has been reduced almost half: 27.5% imposed by Trump in April at a new rate of 15%.

Vehicles are one of EU's main exports to the US and, as the main car manufacturer in the block – thanks to brands such as VW, Mercedes or BMW – Germany is the greatest interested in this sector.

His chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has welcomed the new pact with satisfaction, although he admitted that he would have liked “a greater relaxation of transatlantic trade.”

This moderately pessimistic tone was shared by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers of Germany, the VDA, which warned that even a 15% rate “will cost billions annually to the German automotive industry.”

Trump seeks to boost vehicle production in the US

American manufacturers received good news to learn that the EU will eliminate their own tariff on cars made in the US, lowering it from 10% to 2.5%.

In theory, that could translate into more US cars sold in Europe and benefit US exports.

However, the pact is not completely positive in regards to internal sales, due to the complex way in which US cars are assembled.

Many of them are assembled abroad -canada and Mexico- and Trump applies a 25% tariff when entering the US, compared to 15% with which European vehicles will now be taxed.

Therefore, US manufacturers could fear being displaced by Europeans in their own market.

There is confusion about the tariff that will be imposed to the medications manufactured in Europe that are sold in the US.

The EU wants drugs to be subject to the lowest possible rate, to favor their sales.

Trump said the pharmaceutical products are not included in the agreement announced on Sunday, in which the tariff of various products was reduced to 15%.

But von der Leyen said they were included, and a White House source confirmed the same to the BBC.

Any of the scenarios represents a disappointment for the European pharmaceutical industry, which initially expected a total exemption of tariffs.

The sector today has a strong presence in the US market thanks to products such as Ozempic, a successful medicine against type 2 diabetes manufactured in Denmark.

This has been especially relevant in Ireland, where opposition parties have highlighted the importance of the sector and criticized the harmful effects of uncertainty.

Trump announced that the EU will buy US $ 750,000 million in American energy, in addition to increasing total European investment in the US by US $ 600,000 million.

“We will replace Russian gas and oil with significant purchases of liquefied natural gas, oil and American nuclear fuels,” said Von der Leyen.

This deepens the links between European energy security and the US, in a context in which Europe has been reducing its imports of Russian gas since the large -scale invasion of Ukraine.

Von der Leyen indicated that some “strategic products” will not be subject to tariffs, such as airplanes and aeronautical parts, certain chemical and some agricultural products.

That means that companies that manufacture components for airplanes can trade without barriers between these two huge commercial blocks.

He added that the EU still hopes to achieve more “zero” agreements, especially in sectors such as wine and spirits, in the next few days.

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