Image source, AFP via Getty Images
- Author, Steve Rosenberg
- Author's title, Russian Affairs Editor
- Informs from St. Petersburg
When Israel launched the Operation Lion Nascent, officials in Russia described the current military escalation in the Middle East as “alarming” and “dangerous.”
Even so, the Russian media hastened to highlight the potential positive factors for Moscow.
- A global increase in the price of oil that plans to bulge the coffers of Russia.
- A detour from the attention that Russia receives for its war in Ukraine. “They have forgotten Kyiv” was the head of the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper.
- And if Kremlin's offer to moderate in the conflict was accepted, Russia could be screened as a key actor in the Middle East and as a peacemaker, despite his actions in Ukraine.
However, the longer the Israeli military operation lasts, the more the feeling that Russia has much to lose for these current events.
“The escalation of the conflict entails serious risks and a potential cost for Moscow,” Russian political scientist Andrei Kortunov wrote in the financial newspaper Mommersant, on Monday and added:
“The fact is that Russia was unable to prevent Israel's forceful attack on a country with which Russia signed a broad strategic agreement five months ago. Moscow clearly is not prepared to go beyond the political statements of condemnation of Israel, it is not ready to provide military assistance to Iran.”
The agreed Russian-Iranian strategic agreement that Presidents Vladimir Putin and Masoud Peeshkian signed at the beginning of this year is not a military alliance.
It does not force Moscow to go in defense of Tehran.
At that time, however, Moscow did enhanced this aspect.
In an interview with the news agency RIA Novosti, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the agreement provided “special attention to the strengthening and coordination of peace and security interests at the regional and global level, and the desire of Moscow and Tehran of a more close cooperation in security and defense.”
Image source, Getty Images
In the last six months Moscow has already lost a key ally in the Middle East: Bashar al Assad.
After Syria's leader was deposed last December, Russia offered asylum. The perspective of a regime change in Iran, the idea of losing another strategic partner in the region, will be an important concern for Moscow.
In his comments on events in the Middle East on Tuesday, Moskovsky Komsomolets concluded: “Huge changes are taking place in real time in global policy that will affect our country, directly or indirectly.”
International Forum
Vladimir Putin will spend most of this week in St. Petersburg where the city is host of the annual international economic forum.
The event was at an era called the “Davos de Russia”, but that title no longer really applies.
In recent years, the executive directors of the large companies of the West have remained remote, especially since the large -scale invasion of Russia to Ukraine.
However, the organizers claim that this year the representatives of more than 140 country and territories will attend.
The Russian authorities will undoubtedly use the event to try to demonstrate that attempts to isolate Russia for the war in Ukraine have failed.
It may be an economic forum, but the issue of geopolitics never ceases to be close.
We will be observing closely what comments the Kremlin leader will make about the Middle East and Ukraine.
Subscribe here To our new newsletter to receive every Friday a selection of our best content of the week.
And remember that you can receive notifications in our app. Download the latest version and act.
