In recent times, media attention has focused on asteroid 2024 YR4, an object close to the land that, according to some rumors, could represent a threat in the future. However, NASA will clearly clarify that this asteroid does not imply any danger to our planet, or in 2032 or in later years.
The asteroid was detected a few months ago and, in its first observations, a scenario was handled in which there was an extremely low impact probability for December 22, 2032. However, with the new data that was collected, the calculations of its orbit were refined and the US space agency confirmed that there is no significant risk.
According to NASA, asteroid 2024 YR4 has an estimated size of between 40 and 90 meters wide (130 to 300 feet). This range of dimensions is relevant because, in the event that an object of these characteristics entered the earth's atmosphere, it is most likely to explode in the air before reaching the surface.
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NASA itself explained that, if an asteroid of between 40 and 60 meters crosses the atmosphere on a inhabited region, the damage would be limited, such as window breakage or minor structural damage in buildings. In a less likely case, with an asteroid at the upper end of the range (about 90 meters), the effects could be more serious, including the demolition of residential structures and more extensive damage in urban areas.
Regarding the possibility of causing a tsunami, scientific models indicate that an object of this size exploiting in the air over the ocean would hardly generate waves of great magnitude.
The asteroid impact probability is determined thanks to the observations made by NASA in collaboration with observatories around the world. The program of objects close to Earth calculates its orbits and, through computer models, projects possible future approaches. With each new observation, the trajectory of these objects is better understood, adjusting the risk scenarios.
The agency also recalls that techniques such as the Dart mission, which demonstrated the possibility of diverting an asteroid through a kinetic impact, are an example of planetary defense. However, they emphasize that, in the case of 2024 YR4, speculate on diversion strategies is unnecessary, since the probability of impact is practically null and will continue to decrease as more data is collected.
In this way, experts call calm: there are no reasons to fear that asteroid 2024 YR4 clash with our planet, now or in the future.
