
Image source, Getty Images
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- Author, Patrick Jackson
- Author's title, BBC News
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A key conclusion of the summit in Alaska between the US president, Donald Trump, and his Russian couple, Vladimir Putin, is that the latter wants to freeze the war in Ukraine throughout his current in front of the territory of the Donetsk region that Moscow does not yet control.
Russia controls about 70% of that region (Oblast), including the regional capital of the same name, after more than a decade of fighting in which Donetsk and neighbor Lugansk have been in the heart of the conflict.
If Russia obtained all Donetsk, would consolidate their internationally unrecognized claim on Oblast, in addition to avoiding new and large military losses.
For Ukraine, withdrawing from the west of Donetsk would mean a serious loss not only of territory, with the perspective of a new exodus of refugees, but also the fall of a bastion against any future Russian advance.
Here we analyze why the territory is so important.
What still Ukraine does?
According to an estimate of the Reuters news agency, Ukraine still controls about 6,600 km² of territory in Donetsk.
About a quarter of a million people remain there, local authorities recently reported.
The main urban centers include Kramorsk, Sloviansk, Kostantínovka and Druzhkivka.
It is part of the main industrial region of Ukraine, Donbás, although its economy has been devastated by war.
“The reality is that these resources probably cannot be accessed for at least a decade due to land mines …” said Marnie Howlett, professor of the Department of Russian Policy and Eastern Europe of the University of Oxford, to Reuters.
“These lands have been completely destroyed, these completely razed cities,” he added.
Image source, Getty Images
What is the military importance of the territory?
A recent report by the War Study (ISW), based in the United States, describes a “strength belt” that extends over 50 km over West of Donetsk.
“Ukraine has dedicated the last 11 years to invest time, money and effort to reinforce the strength belt and establish an important industrial and defensive infrastructure,” the text indicates.
The region's reports talk about trenches, bunkers, mined fields, anti -tank and wired obstacles.
The Russian forces that attack Pokrovsk “are engaged in an attempt to seize the city that would probably take several years to complete,” argues the ISW.
Fortifications are undoubtedly part of the Ukrainian defense, but so is topography.
“The land is quite defensible, in particular the Alto Chásiv Yar, which has been underpinning the Ukrainian line,” explains Nick Reynolds, a land war researcher at Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), based in the United Kingdom, to BBC News.
He warns, however, that not everything is beneficial for Ukrainians.
“If we observe the topography of Donbás, and of eastern Ukraine in general, the land does not really favor Ukrainians. The city of Donetsk is on high ground. Everything is downhill as it advances west, which is not favorable for Ukrainians in terms of defensive operations,” he says.
“It is not just about preparing for melee combat or difficulties when going up and down, but also of observation and, therefore, the ability to coordinate artillery fire and other forms of fire support without deploying drones. Likewise, high areas are better for the propagation of radio waves and for the coordination of drones,” he adds.
Chásiv Yar, that the Russians recently affirmed to have captured, “it is one of the last high areas that control the Ukrainians,” he says.
Reynolds points out that intelligence through satellite images, whether provided by international or commercial partners, is very important, “but it is not the same as being able to directly coordinate the tactical missions themselves.”
Image source, 24 Mechanised brigade via EPA
Does the Russian army need all Donetsk?
Donetsk western is just a small part of a front line that extends along about 1,100 km, but has been the scene of some of the most fierce Russian attacks of this summer.
However, if Moscow would channel their land forces in a different direction, it is doubtful that they achieved greater advance.
“In the south, the front line in Zaporiyia is now very similar to that of Donbás, so it would also be to fight through extensive defensive positions,” says Reynolds.
“The Russians face the same problem when trying to break through the north, so they would certainly be pressing through an open door,” he says.
Could Ukraine rebuild your most west defenses?
In theory, in case of a peace agreement, the Ukrainians could go back their western lines.
Of course, there would be the problem of the unfavorable land, and building deep defenses would take time, even with the help of civil contractors who did not have to work under enemy fire.
But the theory is one thing and the realities of the war others. Reynolds does not see the Ukrainian army giving west of Donetsk without fighting.
“Even if the Trump government tries to use continuous support from the United States or security guarantees as a lever, taking into account Russia's previous behavior, as well as the explicitly transactional approach that US administration has adopted, it is difficult to imagine how the Ukrainian government would like to yield that territory,” says the expert.
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has declared that his country will reject any Russian proposal to yield the Donbás region in exchange for a high fire, arguing that the eastern territory could be used as a springboard for future attacks.
Image source, EPA/Shutterstock
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