The headline from just a year ago, a placid and festive Nou d'Octubre for Carlos Mazón and its Consell, following the traditional survey of Prensa Ibérica newspapers in the Valencian Community It was this: «The PP is approaching the absolute majority and adds only more than the left». Twenty days later, the largest flood in many decades in Spain occurred in the province of Valencia, and the legislature was blown up. Also the political board.
The result today, a year later, is very different: governing alone is a very distant scenario for the PP: it would be 16 seats away from the absolute majority. But, yes, it could continue in power, although with greater dependence on Vox, which is the formation that benefited most after the great flood of October 29, 2024. By the minimum (51 deputies out of 99), but the right would add. It is the main novelty, and not insubstantial, with respect to the Lápiz Estratégico Consulting barometer for Prensa Ibérica last May. Then, on the occasion of the two years of the last regional elections, the forecast was for a turnaround in the results: the left (PSPV and Compromís) could return to govern by the minimum, the same 51 deputies that PP and Vox would now reach in the Cortes.
Distribution of seats / Íñigo Roy
In this way, the first conclusion a year after the flood is that everything is in the eaves and the differences between one block and another are minimal. In any case, From May to this point there is a slowdown in the fall of Carlos Mazón's PP and a slight recovery (it would go from 33 to 34 deputies, still far from the 40 it achieved at the polls in 2023), while the growth of the extreme right is consolidated, which would reach 17 seats, four more than it has now and two more than the survey gave it in May. It would be the third force in the Cortes, overtaking Compromís.
Mazón's PP suffers the largest loss (four seats) in Valencia, the province of the flood
Evolution of the vote by party / Íñigo Roy
In the case of Vox, the comparison is especially significant if the result of the survey by Lápiz Estratégico Consulting for Prensa Ibérica from a year ago, just a few days before the ravine, is taken as a reference. Then, Abascal's party collapsed (it did not exceed 8 seats) at the expense of the PP. Today, the dana has turned the tables and the strong growth of the radical formation (more than double the number of parliamentarians in one year) is what could sustain a government like the current onel, whether with Mazón or without him and whether with Vox in the Executive or, as now, as an essential parliamentary ally.
Expectations of the next elections / Íñigo Roy
PSPV: worrying signs
For its part, the survey shows worrying signs for the minister's PSPV-PSOE Diana Morant, since one year after the deadly flood and the harsh confrontation between the Consell de Mazón and the Government of Spain, the formation would obtain only one more seat than it currently has (from 31 it would go to 32). These are two less than the survey predicted a year ago, just before the tragedy, which indicates that this is also taking its toll on the socialists, who They would not be the beneficiaries of the deterioration of the president's management nor of a judicial instruction that has focused on the “late” and “erroneous” alert sent to the population on October 29, 2024, when numerous municipalities were already flooded.
Vox is the preferred party in the 18 to 30 age group, with almost one in four votes
The decline of the PSPV has occurred in recent months, since in May the survey placed it as the first force with 35 deputies. Today, the PP would remain the party with the most votes, although the margin is narrow: only two more deputies than Morant's.
Compromís would also grow with respect to its current situation in the Cortes (from 15 to 16), although it would be insufficient to reissue a left-wing government. The sum remains at 48. The dana catapults the coalition, which a year ago appeared in the survey with poor expectations in a downward drift (11 deputies), but is not enough to govern.
Theoretical transfer of votes / Íñigo Roy
In Valencia, the province that suffered the damage, the collapse of the PP is focused: it would lose 4 seats. The rest of the parties would grow. The most, Vox, who would achieve two more. The other two would be added in Castellón, a province where the intention to vote for the radical formation skyrockets. In Alicante, the movement of seats is scarce: one from the PP, which would go to the PSPV; the rest, the same.
For socialists, a positive fact is that appear as the majority formation in intention to vote directlywith a difference of almost ten points over the PP in the province of Valencia. However, the PP dominates in Alicante and Castellón and, especially, among men.
And the voting intention among the voters deserves special attention. youthsbecause in the group between 18 and 30 years old Vox easily prevails (23.2%), with almost one in four votes, and the PSPV is the party with the least preference.
In this sense, when asked about their ideological identification, 8.3% declared themselves extreme right, the highest figure in this series of barometers. These data explain that the most notable phenomenon in the transfer of votes is the 5.2% that goes from PP to Vox with respect to the 2023 elections. The survey reflects a very mobilized society, with a very low expectation of abstention.
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