In conventional military terms, there is no doubt that Tehran has been in a situation of maximum pressure since Israel began a week ago the greatest attack in its history against Iran. Israel managed to control Iranian airspace with extraordinary speed, in just a few hours after launching the surprise operation. The Israeli army communicated on Monday that his drones and bombers had destroyed 120 Iranian air defense systems, approximately one third of those that Tehran had at the beginning of the war.
The most effective armament in the Iranian response has been its arsenal of high -speed ballistic missiles, which according to the estimates of the Israel Defense Forces (FDI) had about 2,000 units when hostilities began. But Tehran has lost military response capacity and exercising significant threat after the relentless Israeli attacks against launch bases in the west of the country, such as Kermanshah underground; and the accidents and effective selective murders with which Israel has ended with the life of high command of the army.
Iran has launched more than 400 missiles against Israel so far. Of that total, about 200 were launched in the first retaliation walks last Friday. Of the approximately 40 daily missiles that were sent during the weekend, between 15 and 20 missiles were passed on Monday (on Thursday afternoon 15), according to a count of the American Study Center Institute for the Study of War. According to United States calculations prior to the start of the confrontation, Iran's ability to manufacture new weapons is limited: 50 missiles per month.
The speed of these ballistic missiles makes dangerous weapons. Around 10%, the sophisticated aerial defenses of Israel continue to avoid, such as the one that wounded 76 people at the Soroka Medical Center, in the southern city of Beersheba. But for the most part they do not seem effectively directed against the Israel military-industrial complex, except for Sunday's attack against the Haifa Refinery, which caused the closure of these facilities in northern Israel.
In Israel, the work of interception of ballistic missiles rests mainly on the Arrow 3, its new air defense system, with a range of 2,400 kilometers and ability to tear down missiles beyond the Earth's atmosphere. The Arrow 2, its predecessor, and the help of the United States with its Thaad Air Defense System and its Oriental Mediterranean destroying ships are also being used.
Neither of the two Arrow systems is cheap: each Arrow 3 interceptor costs between 2 and 3.5 million dollars (between 1.7 and 3 million euros), depending on the calculation used. The cost of Arrow 2 is around 1.5 million dollars the unit (about 1.3 million euros). According to a calculation of the Israeli newspaper specialized in economics GlobesIsrael has spent since October 2023 between 1,000 and 1.5 billion dollars in Arrow interceptors (between 870 and 1.3 billion euros).
The key is in the number of interceptors available to the Israeli army, an issue that worries in Tel Aviv after an article of the newspaper The Wall Street Journal that cited a high American position that said off the record that Israel were ending. The level of stock is kept secret and seems unlikely that Israel, fully aware of the threat that Iranian ballistic missiles represent, has decided to assault Iran without calculating if it had a sufficient number of interceptors to protect yourself from the Iranian response.
But the sophisticated defensive missiles take to be manufactured, a problem that has been revealed in Ukraine, where Russia continues to shoot a number of missiles greater than the interceptors that Kieve has at your disposal.
Israel has communicated to his allies, before a week passed, who has advanced more than he expected with his attack: in the first 24 hours he ended with the life of 21 high positions of the Iranian army, of a total of 22 objectives; and of 10 Iranian nuclear scientists, of a total of 12.
Israeli aircraft do not have to face almost any air defense when they fly over the west and center of Iran, which means that in many areas of the country they can attack with apparent impunity (so far, Israel has only recognized the loss of a drone). Even if Israeli attack missile reserves are exhausted within one or two weeks, and the US did not intervene, Israel's dominance over the Iranian sky implies that they could continue to attack at a slower pace.
Iran's capabilities have been “demonstrated ineffective,” concluded the missile analyst Fabian Hinz in a document for the International Institute Studies Center for Strategic Studies. The document also stated that “Israeli leaders are accepting the risk of ballistic missiles against their population centers, at least for the moment.”
According to Hinz, the “deterrent balance” between the two countries is falling apart and can only evolve in favor of Tehran if a greater number of its remaining ballistic missiles, or a greater proportion, begins to reach population centers or key places in Israel. At the moment there is no indication that this is so.
Translated by Francisco de Zárate
