To the great summits, the leaders arrive with practically all closed. And that was also the intention of the 32 NATO Member States before the annual event held in Hague on June 24 and 25. Probably this time more than ever because it will be the first of the new stage of Donald Trump. Many heads of government will see him in person for the first time and others, such as Pedro Sánchez, will meet him for the first time from his return to the White House. But all are aware of the volatility and unpredictability of the US president, who has raised the pressure to the maximum on his partners when he even threatened to not protect in case of attack to those who were below the military spending objectives that were agreed in 2014 or to disconnect from the security of Europe, which has always been subject to Washington.
But that intention of having everything agreed before the appointment has jumped through the air with the sound rejection of Pedro Sánchez to sign a military spending commitment of 5% of GDP, which would place him in a complicated situation with his government and investiture partners. The letter that the president of the Government sent on Thursday to the secretary general of the NATO, Mark Rutte, meant breaking the procedure of silence that the Dutchman had raised to accept his latest proposal, which included some flexibility with respect to the initial one, but that basically buys the frame from Trump: to raise the 5% defense expenditure (3.5% for pure and hard military spending, and 1.5% for a wider concept of security that includes mobility, of critical infrastructures, cybersecurity, etc.) by 2032. With the objection of Sánchez, the proposal is prevented by being accepted.
And in this type of decisions within the framework of NATO, consensus is required and with which there is a 'no', the situation is blocked. Spain is not the only one, but the most vehement. And it is Sánchez who looks at the rest of allies three days before the meeting in The Hague. Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, Belgium and Luxembourg also have reluctance. Most of these countries are currently in a military spending and have made stresses to 2% this year. In the case of Italy, a shooting debt is added. The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, announced a historical increase, but still falls below the effort that Rutte claims by Trump delegation: reach 3% in 2034.
What these capitals are raising within NATO is to extend until 2035 the date to achieve that commitment. Although it would give a certain margin of maneuver for the extension of spending, in practice it would also be able to shoot it to a historical record. Another of the approaches that have been formulated in the Atlantic Alliance is to establish a clause of a review in 2029. On the one hand, some Member States consider that by then Trump will be out of the White House and everything will be easier. However, diplomatic sources recognize that intelligence services warn that security challenges will not be less but more for that date. Therefore, they give a relative validity to that concession.
And, in any case, for Spain it is insufficient. One of the reproaches that make Spain other countries is that he had not raised his needs or proposals. And Sánchez did this Thursday: that the 5% objective is not binding, but also appears as an “optional” proposal for the Member States of the Alliance. “The formula that I propose would allow us to preserve the 5% objective in the statement for those allies who need it or who want to pursue it,” he said in his letter.
However, it does not seem that Trump will allow voluntariness to the rest of NATO members after having increased one of its objectives and demands since it arrived at the White House. “The president wants all European countries to pay their part and reach that threshold of 5%,” said the White House spokeswoman Thursday.
And he spoke specifically about European countries, which is those that Trump is demonstrating to have more inquina by having affirmed that the EU was founded to “fuck” the US.
In any case, the negotiation continues. NATO has bunkerized even more than usual. “The discussions among the allies about a new Investment Plan in Defense are underway,” they are limited to saying. “The negotiation will continue today and tomorrow,” a source acknowledged on Thursday, which added: “If we need to negotiate until Sunday, we will.” The other sign that the matter is green is that the US ambassador to NATO, Matthew G. Whitaker, was going to maintain a meeting with journalists this Friday and has postponed it to Monday. Everything is open and the negotiations are counterreloj, with an uncertain end because for now Spain is in the blockade, nobody says how far Sánchez is in his refusal, and Trump is unpredictable.