Iran had tried these weeks to dissuade Donald Trump to join the Israel bombing campaign with retaliation threats, but the reality is that their options seem limited and are plagued with risks.
High Iranian charges have specifically pointed out to ships and US military bases as objectives, despite the fact that much of the country's deterrent capacity has been eliminated in recent days by the strong wave of Israeli attacks. Although Israel aimed to end Iranian response capacity, their attacks have focused on long -range ballistic missile launchers. Faced with this, Iran still has a huge arsenal of short -range missiles and drones.
Given this threat, in recent weeks, the United States has taken precautions, dispersing its naval presence in the region and reinforcing its aerial defenses to try to present as a objective as difficult as possible.
Trump has also warned of a greater involvement of the US in the Israel War if they will try to counterattack, and in recent days it has come to suggest that one of the objectives for American bombers would be the supreme leader, Ayatolá Ali Jamenei.
The fragility of the 'Axis of Resistance'
The other main weapon of Iran, built for decades, is its network of alliances with regional militias, its “resistance axis”, but this has also been reduced in recent months. The extensive Missile Arsenal of Hizbulá was pulverized by the wave of attacks of the Israeli Air Force last year. Not only that: Israel's airplanes attacked Lebanese Shiite force this year, bombing an alleged missile deposit in southern Beirut in April.
A Shiite militia backed by Tehran in Iraq, Kata'ib Hizbulá, has threatened to attack “US interests” in the Middle East in response to Washington's participation in the support of Israel. One of his commanders, Abu Ali al-Askari, has been summoned in the CNN saying that the US bases in the region “will become something similar to ducky hunting land.” The United States has up to 19 military facilities in the Middle East, eight of them permanently.
Another Iranian partner, the huti forces in Yemen, agreed to stop the fire with the United States in May after a wave of Washington bombings – with serious consequences for the civilian population – although they warned that they would consider the truce broken if Trump participated in the attacks against Iran. His messages placed as a objective the US ships in the Red Sea, something that the hutis have made with diverse results in the past.
The entry of any of these militias in the war would cause a devastating response from the United States, which has been preparing for such contingency during the months in which Israel has been preparing its attack.
Put maritime transport in check
Iran also contemplates the option of attacking maritime transport, which includes exploding mines, sinking boats or emitting credible threats to close the Ormuz Strait. Precisely a few minutes ago the Iranian Parliament has approved its closure, although it is the Supreme National Security Council that must determine whether or not it closes. It is a narrow entrance door to the Persian Gulf of just 55 km at some points, it is vital, since more than a fifth of the world oil supply (20 million barrels) and much of its liquefied gas transit daily.
In recent days, Iranian politicians of the toughest wing of the regime have called to close the Strait. For Iran, this option presents the advantage of imposing a direct cost to Trump, causing a rebound in the price of oil with an almost immediate inflation effect in the US before next year's legislative elections. However, the closure would also be an act of economic self -harm. Iranian oil uses this same route, and closing Ormuz means dragging the Arab States of the Gulf to the conflict, who have strongly criticized the Israeli attack, to safeguard their own interests.
To avoid incorporating more adversaries into the conflict or causing a total bombing campaign by the US, Tehran could also opt for cold revenge, on a later date. In the past, he has delayed his response to external attacks. Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi hinted at an indefinite retaliation by stating Trump's decision “will have lasting consequences.”
