BBC analysis: Trump's tactical tactical tactical are giving results

Japan is a key factor for the transformation of the world commercial system promoted by President Donald Trump.

In its own terms, it could now be said that its aggressive approach is giving tangible results.

From the beginning, the American party has been talking about the possibilities of an agreement with Japan, but despite several meetings, the agreement had been strangely elusive … until now.

In a strict sense, this is a victory for Trump's approach, especially if Japan becomes the domino tab that leads the rest of the world to align.

Japan now has the best agreement, or rather, the least bad, of all nations with important commercial surpluses with the US.

The 15% general tariff that will apply to imported Japanese products in the US is greater than 10% of the United Kingdom, but that country has no surpluses.

As I have reported before, the fury of Japanese negotiators during the conversations was noticed among Washington DC diplomats., Accustomed to the extreme courtesy of the Asian nation.

Tokyo was playing hard. The Japanese finance minister described the US $ 1.1 billion that his country has in American treasure bonds, the largest in the world, as a “letter” that could be put on the table.

They were the rumors about the sale of American bonds, by coverage funds in Japan after the tariffs of the “Liberation Day” of Trump in April, which triggered a greater mass sale and greater doubts about the world's largest economy and the status of safe refuge of the US dollar.

Thus, the achievement of an agreement has enormous importance in itself and as an example for other large economic blocks, including the European Union (EU).

The agreement arrives this Wednesday, the day the Japanese receive EU leaders in Tokyo. There had been talk of coordinating the reprisals of Japan, the EU and Canada. This slows any initiative of this type.

Some EU members will ask why a similar agreement cannot be achieved, at the same time that Germany and France raise the commitment of reprisals (perhaps against US technological giants).

The world awaits the details about it, but it is clear that Japan has protected its agricultural imports, although more American rice will import.

It is not clear what can change the lack of popularity of the great US cars in the country, although Japanese private companies will be backed to invest, in some way, half a billion dollars in the US.

Japan has made this agreement when I could have expected to see how things evolve and international markets react when August 1 entered Trump's toughest tariffs for a series of countries.

The internal political weakness of his prime minister may have been a factor, although other countries, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, have also made deals.

The general panorama, however, is a tired acceptance – for fear of something worse – that the US imposes tariffs, which a year ago would have been unthinkable for its main allies.

In the case of Japan, it was Trump's threat to apply a 25%tariff.

Tariffs now collect important sums for American treasure, without reprisals against US exporters.

With more than US $ 100,000 million so far this year, about 5% of federal revenues in the United States come from tariffs, compared to the most common 2%.

The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, believes that annual tariff collection will be US $ 300,000 million.

It is far from the amount collected by the Income Tax, but it is a notable amount. It is charging without direct reprisals and without currently producing the markets in the market as the views previously.

However, the story does not end here. Who really pays these tariffs? Ultimately, US consumers will afford a large part in terms of prices paid for imported products.

In the past, Besent and others have suggested that an increase in the value of the dollar would help mitigate the cost of imports for consumers. The opposite has happened.

The dollar has collapsed in the first half of this year, losing 10% of its value compared to a world foreign exchange basket. This will be added to the cost of imports, in addition to tariffs.

The panorama is also broader. The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, declared this week that “the most busy operation on the market is currently the 'short dollar'” (referring to an investment strategy that seeks to obtain profitability in short -term transactions using the dollar).

He added that the refuge patterns established in the markets, especially the US dollar, were “essentially breaking.”

There is a “reduction in exposure” to the dollar, since companies and operators now hire operations or “coverage” aimed at protecting themselves from their fall, “Bailey said.

As I have said before, in the markets there is suspicion that this weakest dollar may have actually been part of the objective of these interventions, designed to help promote, for example, the recovery of the competitiveness of US manufacturers of the “oxide belt” in the US (an industrial region that suffered an economic decline).

In addition, the United States has helped its great rival, China, to demonstrate to the rest of the world that it can be a more stable commercial partner.

For this first stage of the Great World Trade War, the agreement with Japan is an important victory for the White House, which will allow him TACO (by the acronym of expression in that language).

Although it could also translate into more apparent victories for the deadlines of next week, which would further boost the euphoria of the markets.

The broader economic panorama is still much more murky.

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(This article was written and edited by our journalists with the help of an artificial intelligence tool for translation, as part of a pilot program).