“The defense ministers have not had a central role because the defense has not been a specific policy of the European Union, it remains an intergovernmental policy, it has only developed through the Member States,” admits an experienced official with a long career in Brussels. Old Europe continues to maintain its long and tedious processes while the rest of the world changes at full speed. This Wednesday the leaders of European countries will meet in a fortified Copenhagen, after drone attacks to their airports, with two fundamental objectives: the defense, in the midst of the continuous Russian provocations with invasions of European airspace, and support Ukraine in its war against Russia. This is an informal European council, that is, a position of position approach to make decisions of more draft in the council that will be held at the end of October in Brussels.
At least overwhelming statements are expected against the “constant provocations” of Vladimir Putin. September has been a month in which the tensions between the European Union and Russia have shot. In less than two weeks there have been several incidents caused by drones and Russian airplanes that have violated the airspace of border European countries with the consequent response of NATO armed forces. That is why the necessary diplomatic language will be given in the absence of agreed measures.
To open the week, the Weimar Triangle, the Regional Alliance between Germany, France and Poland, met on Monday to launch its notice to Russia. Radosław Tomasz Sikorski, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland, declared after ending the meeting with his counterparts from France and Germany that “the recent Russian provocations against Poland and Estonia are disturbing.” “They show that Russia is still looking for confrontation and is not interested in peace. I am pleased defend the entire NATO territory. ”
This hardness in the statements ranges from the notices of the NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, with his “We will not hesitate, we will do whatever it is necessary to defend” to the threats of the Polish government with which they are willing to tear down Russian airplanes if they enter their airspace. Are all NATO countries with this provision? Moncloa sources remember that “Spain participates in NATO, which has some 'rules of engagement'(Military directives that establish the limits and conditions under which the forces of the alliance can use force in a given scenario). In that framework we move, with which we are and are part of what NATO decides as an ally and as a member state. ”
Continuing with defense this is one of the great issues that will be discussed in the capital of Denmark. How do they do it? A council official points out that “there are already financial instruments. There is a more urgent specific threat on the eastern flank, but it is not the only one. A drone attack can occur in any part of Europe. There is a problem of European solidarity that has to be solved with the allocation of defense funds.”
In fact, from the European Commission they indicate that Europe needs to reach a sufficiently strong defense posture for 2030 to dissuade themselves credible and respond to any aggression. Europe must be urgently equipped with a strategic capacity developed and maintained jointly, acting as an independent actor, while contributing to global and transatlantic security in close association with NATO. The United States has ceased to be a totally reliable ally after the continuous fluctuations of Donald Trump. Now the concept of fashion in Brussels corridors is strategic autonomy, although it is not completely clear how it is financed.
Moncloa sources say that “the position of Spain is absolute support for the safety of the west flank and the president of the Government has warned that it will also participate in the operation of the eastern flank. The Government of Spain is aware of the threat and the Spanish participation will be reiterated both in NATO and in advance in the European Union towards a more sustainable strategic autonomy.” Spain has requested 1 billion in loans of the 150,000 million euros that are part of the SAFE instrument (Security Action for Europe). These loans for defense plans have been signed by 19 member states of the 27, but now they are expected to be put on the table more joint instruments to accelerate investments in military technology, beyond pressures to increase up to 5% of GDP the spending in defense of each member country.
The first meeting that was held between the European Commission Y and the Ministers of Defense of the seven Member States on the front line: Estonia, Latvia, Finland, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, in addition to their counterpart in Ukraine and responsible for NATO, left as a conclusion that there is no capacity in the European armies to respond to an attack of Russian drones, not even an adequate detection system.
In this field, after years of war conflict, Ukraine can give Europeans technology and knowledge already used in the field in their war against Russia. In fact, Ukraine is the second topic to be discussed in this informal council. A council official explains that it must be decided “how to structure financing for Ukraine from next year.” In this sense, the proposal of the president of the European Commission is on the table, Ursula von der Leyen, to offer a interest without interest to Ukraine of 140,000 million euros from the Russian assets that are frozen in the EU due to the sanctions. Council sources admit that “it is a very complex issue, with numerous financial and legal implications and the leaders are not expected to enter details, but there may be a political orientation about whether they are willing to define formulas to use immobilized assets for the financing of Ukraine.”
Another issue on the table is the expansion of the EU with the Ukraine adhesion process. This change can be deeper because the president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, has explored in his visit to several countries a change of negotiation frames so that the opening of the adhesion process was by qualified majority and that has to be closed unanimously. It is not a completely new idea, since years ago it was proposed without success for Slovenia and Germany. It is now intended to overcome the veto of Hungary, which has a posture near Russia, and could stop the entry process of Ukraine or Moldova in the EU.
Council officials recognize that Costa will only launch this change in vote variables for expansion “if you see that there is a possibility that you succeed. There is the impression that it is not completely impossible, which will continue your contacts.”
There is nothing on the agenda about Gaza's genocide by Israel, but being an informal meeting, hot springs may not appear in the agenda. From Moncloa it is recalled that the president of the Government recalled that “there is a moral imperative and an international law to respect, humanitarian law. It has also indicated the security aspect for the entire Mediterranean arch” as an argument to end in a fair way the conflict of Palestine and Israel.