European leaders meet again in Brussels this Thursday with the aim of breaking the vetoes that hang over fundamental policies such as support and financing for Ukraine vis-à-vis Russia or the diatribe between climate change objectives and business interests. Despite the will to try to close agreements and the fact that the EU institutions intend to shake off the slab of inactivity that haunts them, in this European Council the broken seams of a European Union will once again be revealed where national interests and the shadow of Russia complicate consensus. A diplomat summarizes the situation: “No agreement is expected to be closed at this summit.” As a positive point, this will be the first Council in which the housing problem will be addressed.
Finally, the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, will attend the summit with European leaders, although he is not expected to take away anything more than great speeches of support. The main measures of financial and arms support for Ukraine and the latest package of sanctions against Russia remain paralyzed. On the one hand, although diplomatic sources assure that there is progress, the use of the 184 billion frozen Russian assets, which are in Belgium, as a loan to Ukraine to finance its weapons needs “is not resolved.”
A diplomat explains that “we still need to clarify the guarantees that member states have to give for these loans to Ukraine and make an assessment of the risks and responsibility of each country if Russian frozen assets are used in the event that Russia initiates a procedure and goes to international courts.” The country that was putting the most pressure on this measure is Belgium, since Euroclear, the depository company for the frozen Russian assets, has its headquarters in this country.
Diplomatic sources understand Belgium's reservations: “We are talking about 184 billion, which is 27% of Belgium's GDP, it is necessary that the risks and responsibility be minimized to build the architecture of loans to Ukraine.” Furthermore, another diplomat recalls that if the proposal involves directly purchasing weapons for Ukraine with that money, “there are three countries in the EU that have stated in their Constitution that they are neutral (Austria, Ireland and Malta), so there are also impediments of a constitutional nature.” At this point, sources from the Spanish Government point out that responsibility must be shared and that guarantees to minimize the risk of the loan should be mutualized through the European Budget.
The issue of financing the Ukrainian Army will take up a good part of the discussions and even more so in the speeches, which will be mostly supportive, but there will be no solid decisions. One diplomat explains the dichotomy: “Five EU member states are paying more than half of the military support to Ukraine, just five countries. If we all shared the burden as we said at the time there would be problems, but not because of money. A country like Denmark contributes 20 times more per capita than some very large member states.” Future plans to strengthen the EU's defense will also be discussed.
In addition, it will address how to increase surveillance and control of the Russian shadow flotilla (ships that Russia uses to evade international sanctions, especially dedicated to transporting oil), although the legal conditions will not be hidden. Diplomatic sources explain that “on this issue it gives the impression that we are always one step behind. We are going to look for formulas so that the list of sanctions on ships is broader, that there are more than 400. It is also intended that the sanctions reach vessels with false flag registrations and it is going to be on the table to take measures against the ports that allow these oil tankers to dock, but this has already been tried in the past and was not possible.”
The nineteenth package of sanctions against Russia may begin to see the light of day, although it needs the unanimity of the 27 for its approval. Until now, the Hungary of ultranationalist Viktor Orbán has been the country that had put all the pressure on the punishments against Russia for invading Ukraine, but now that it seems that Orbán has decided to look the other way, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, has come out as an apprentice, who warned this Monday: “I am not interested in dealing with new packages of sanctions against Russia until see, in the summit conclusions, instructions from the European Commission on how to address the crisis in the automotive industry and the high energy prices that are making the European economy completely uncompetitive.”
Competitiveness vs climate change
Precisely, the automobile industry is the nucleus that can block the progress of the green agenda that was agreed upon last legislature. This summit will try to reach a consensus on measures that boost the competitiveness of the European economy and the simplification process to reduce the bureaucratic burdens on companies with the objectives against climate change. Germany leads the group of countries along with Italy, Austria, Slovakia, Poland and the Czech Republic that want to change the goal of zero emissions from combustion vehicles by 2035. Spain and France advocate maintaining the ban on the sale of combustion vehicles in 2035.
The debate is whether the objectives have to be maintained or whether they should be marked by “enabling conditions” such as financial measures, the market situation or the calculation of emissions. Sources from the Government of Spain point out that “competitiveness and the green transition must go hand in hand and that Spain's proposal is to “defend the roadmap to achieve 90% decarbonization by 2040”. The swords are held high and, for the moment, it seems that the balance turns towards the interests of the industry.
The Middle East will also be discussed, but with less intensity than at other summits. Brussels has decided that it prefers to wait for the implementation of the peace agreement in Gaza. Now, it is maintained that the only possible and real solution to the conflict between Palestine and Israel is the two-state solution. Furthermore, formulas will be sought to try to deliver humanitarian aid more quickly to the Gaza Strip and turn the EU into an active player in the reconstruction of this area of Palestine destroyed by the Israeli Army.
Housing enters the agenda
Furthermore, for the first time the housing problem will be discussed in a European Council. The Government of Spain assures that it is its merit that housing reaches Brussels so that solutions can be found. The European Commission is preparing the European Affordable Housing Plan and the Special Committee on the Housing Crisis in the EU is to be created in the European Parliament. Housing will enter the debate of the 27 countries that make up the Union, but it is not expected that there will be any major decisions on this issue.
There are two other issues that will not be addressed directly, although they have been controversial in recent days: neither the elimination of the time change proposed by President Pedro Sánchez nor China are on the agenda. Despite the relevant role of the Asian giant with the measures it has taken to control critical minerals and that among the 27 countries of the Union, economic security is at the center of the agenda, China was not among the points to be discussed at the summit.