Israel has opened a war against Iran in a huge aerial offensive against objectives from Tabriz, in the north of the country, Isfahán in the south, and including the capital Tehran, where it has also murdered the leaders of the Iranian military dome. This offensive, which threatens to submerge the region in violence, is the culmination of decades of Israeli threats, and in particular of a real obsession of the current prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, but also motivated by a personal flight forward.
Despite the increase in threats against Iran since the Israeli offensive against Gaza began, and in particular in recent months, the attacks have surprised, since Iran had planned to meet this Sunday in Oman with the US in a fifth round of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program.
The degree of involvement of the US in the attack is a relevant issue, because it depends on whether they will decide to attack US objectives in the region in retaliation. In a communicationthe US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, wanted to underline that the US has not participated in the attack, and warns Iran that he should not take reprisals against the interests or personnel of the US.
Trump ha recognizedhowever, which was previously informed of the attack, and has implicitly indicated that it could have stopped it. The US president considers that negotiations on Iranian nuclear proliferation will continue, although “there are several Iranian leaders who will not return”, referring to those that Israel has killed in their attack, assuming that the Israeli attack will not cause a strong Iranian response, and treating the offensive as a pressure instrument on negotiations. There has been Other confirmations that there has been prior coordination between Israel and the US.
This Israeli military campaign has been even more ambitious than expected, since it has gone beyond nuclear and military facilities, to the point of decapiting the Persian armed forces by killing the Chief of Staff, its second and the leader of the Revolutionary Guard. To date, Israeli attacks had concentrated on Iranian military facilities and, at the end of last year, President Biden had called To Israel to avoid attacking nuclear and energy facilities in response to the Iranian attack of October 1, 2024.
During these last 20 months of offensive against Gaza, Israel has been expanding the scope of its attacks and demonstrating their ability to carry them out in increasingly remote areas of the region. In this period he already launched a series of attacks against Iran that have served as training for this mass attack. In particular, in its previous attack last October 26, destroyed A good part of the Iranian anti -aircraft defense systems. He also murdered Hamás Ismail Haniyeh on July 31 in the Tehran. The repeated Israeli bombings against Yemen in their confrontation with the Hutis, which in turn have launched attacks against Israel in response to the Israeli military offensive in Gaza, have also been the prequel of this last offensive.
Iran carried out his first attack against Israel from Iranian territory last April 13, 2024. It was a massive aggression with hundreds of drones, ballistic and cruise missiles, but almost all were intercepted. On the second Iranian attack, on October 1, in which a high number of Iranian missile It was limited attacking military objectives.
Part of the Israeli motivation is to divert the attention of its military offensive in Gaza, where the attacks are accentuated while the humanitarian catastrophe is exacerbated day after day. Already on Thursday he destroyed the communication infrastructure of the Strip, leaving the population of almost totally incommunicado. Gaza's destruction is an unprecedented historical event and diplomatic pressure against Israel had begun to grow palpably in the last month.
In addition to diverting attention, the attack against Iran serves to force the alignment of Western and even regional countries with Israel, and create an alliance against Iran. The different governments have begun to demonstrate immediately. In Europe, Germany It has begun to coordinate with the United Kingdom and France. In the Middle East, the Lebanese government Try to avoid that Hizbulá enters the conflict, dragging the country with him. In Iraq, the Chií Muqada leader Al-Sadr has called that Iraq does not get involved. Jordan, on the other hand, is a key country for Israeli defense mechanisms and actively participates in its antimile shield.
Regarding the Iranian response, which has already included the bombardment of civil objectives in Tel Aviv on Friday, it is necessary to know if it will attack regional oil facilities, as threatened to do in the past; and to what the USA will be implied in a conflict that has a high potential to increase scale and drag a great power to a Terrestrial invasion. What is evident is that statements Trump seem to indicate that Your criticism To the American interventionist neoconservatism, and his defense of a certain anti -interventionism in his position “America First”, have been exaggerated.
In addition to the risks of a war that surrounds the entire region, causing massive death and destruction, there are strong associated global repercussions that are already beginning to feel In stock markets. All this responds to two personal motivations of the Israeli prime minister: fleeing forward (for the legal causes that stalk him inside and outside Israel, including his arrest warrant of the International Criminal Court, and the political and even historical repercussions of the growing catastrophe of Gaza), and reorganize every Middle East converting Israel into the indisputable regional hegemon.
