The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the president of the United States, Donald Trump, reached an agreement to resolve their commercial dispute with the establishment of taxes of 15%. A blow that will directly affect emblematic products of the Spanish field such as wine, oil, cheeses or hams and will also have a visible impact on the group of machines, mechanical devices and devices and electrical material. Both the agribusiness group and machinery could see exports between 10% and 15% fall, according to commercial penetration in the United States.
From the Government they are not very happy with an agreement that from various economic sectors is accused of unequal and harmful to European interests. The president of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, during his analysis of the political course, said: “I value the effort of the European Commission. I value the constructive attitude of the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. I support this commercial agreement, but I do it without any enthusiasm.”
Sanchez has insisted that the way to follow is the one marked by the European Commission to “intensify commercial relations with other areas of the world, especially with Mercosur”, so he has insisted that he expects “Spain to be heard”, given the doubts launched by other countries by that commercial agreement, and “follow the line of diversifying commercial relations, as the president Von der has announced in India or Indonesia”.
The Chamber of Commerce of Spain has estimated that the entry into force of a 15% generalized tariff to US imports from the EU could cause a 10.1% drop in Spanish exports to the US. In monetary terms, a reduction of 1,841 million euros over the total Spanish exports to the United States (USA) of the year 2024 would involve.
“A priori, the direct impact would be limited. Total sales to the US represented only 4.7% of the total Spanish exports in 2024, so it would be a limited effect. However, the impact could be relevant in the sectors with a greater exposure to the American market, such as team goods, semimanuffactures and some agro -food products,” said the Chamber of Commerce of Commerce.
The governor of the Bank of Spain, José Luis Escrivá, has considered that the impact of the tariff agreement with the United States will be “moderate” in the case of Spain due to a low volume of exports, which has specifically located in 5% of all the products that Spain sells in the US.
For Escrivá, the problem can arise with the clauses that accompany these agreements with the EU. The Bank of Spain already made an analysis of the impact of the commercial obstacles that the Trump administration that placed at a percentage point in the economic growth of Spain in the next three years, accumulated. That is, a damage of just two or three tenths per exercise, from here to 2028.
Even in the worst scenario of the commercial war, which has not occurred by the agreement of this weekend, the Bank of Spain previously calculated that the Spanish economy would still grow 2% in 2025.
The Exporters and Investor Club positively values the agreement reached between the United States and the European Union. The organization emphasizes that, although a fall in Spanish exports to the US is expected around 10% according to different estimates, this impact is assumed against the risk that would have meant a more drastic measure. “Better a moderate tariff than one of 30%,” said Antonio Bonet, president of the club, who remembers that exports to the United States represent 1.13% of the national GDP.
Machinery and electrical material
The Chamber of Commerce has stressed that the goods belonging to the group 'Machines, mechanical devices and electrical devices and materials would be the “most sensitive” in the face of an increase in import tariffs from Spain. If the tariff of this type of products rises to 15%, the decrease in its sales to the North American country would approach 16.2%.
The US sales of 'chemical and pharmaceutical products' would also be “particularly sensitive” to the evolution of US tariffs, since a 15% tariff could reduce exports of this kind of goods by 9.6%.
While '' stone manufactures, gypsum, glass and jewelry ', despite facing a target tariff than in the case of the other chapters analyzed, except food products, they have “the slightest sensitivity” to changes in tariff rates, with an average reduction in sales to the US of 1.1%.
The union of steel companies (UNESID) has asked for “clarity” on the trade agreement and has claimed “urgent aid for affected companies.” “It is essential to urgently know the concrete details of the agreement, particularly if zero tariff will be applied within quota and what consequences the 50% tariff will have out of share,” they said in a statement.
Agri -food industry
Another more negative position is that adopted by the agri -food industry and agrarian producers. The Spanish Federation of Food and Beverage Industries (FIAB) has described the tariff agreement as “unfair and unbalanced”. “An agreement is better than an open commercial war, but we do not resign ourselves to exports to our products to the United States to be penalized with a 15%tariff. It is an imposition of the United States that breaks with the balance of free trade,” said the president of FIAB, Ignacio Silva.
FIAB recalled that the United States is a market that “is not substitutable” for the Spanish food and beverage sector and that it is the first extra -community market in the sector and the fourth in global terms, with more than 3.3 billion euros exported in 2024 and 770,000 tons sent and that represents 6.6% of the total value of our exports and about 4% of the volume.
Silva has reiterated that “the Spanish food and drink industry cannot give up a market like the American.” “Aspects linked to export activity such as employment within the sector and the whole food value chain are at stake,” he said.
According to the data of the Chamber of Commerce of Spain, the group of 'food and tobacco products', which faced so far an average tariff of 7.45%, would show a “moderate” impact. Specifically, an increase in tariffs to place them in 15% could reduce their exports to the United States by 2.6%.
“This result constitutes an average of the entire group, so there may be specific products of this branch with a greater sensitivity to tariff policy, as could be the case of olive oil or wine, as already proven during the increase in tariffs recorded during the first mandate of the Trump administration,” said the body.
Vino
The European Committee of Wine Companies (CEEV), of which the Spanish Federation of Wine (FEV) is part, has demanded on Monday to apply the “zero by zero” tariff for wine within the framework of the new commercial agreement between the EU and the US, announced yesterday, before the “serious impact” that a 15% tariff could have on the sector and the external sales to this country.
José Luis Benítez, general director of the Spanish Federation of Wine, recalled that in 2024 the United States was the first market for Spanish packaging wines, so it is “vital” for the sector to eliminate the general tariff of the Framework Agreement, of 15%, which could ballast trade with this country up to 10%. According to the first calculations of Spanish winemakers to the tariff, the variation in the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro should be added, which is currently 15%.
Benítez has warned that maintaining the 15% tariff would generate “long -term damage” in the market share, in the margin of companies that continue to trade with the US and in commercial relations in general.
Oil
More hopeful are in the oil sector. Prudence and moderation have reigned among agricultural organizations such as ASAJA, COAG and UPA. Luis Carlos Valero, spokesman for Asaja Jaén, explained that the imposition of this 15% is “totally negative” for their interests, although it is true that “we must really wait to see how these tariffs apply.” Valero recalled that Spain already had tariffs on olive oil with the previous Trump government, but only affected packaged oil.
If the tariffs are to the packaging olive oil, the incidence will be “minimal”, because “the vast majority of exporters who go to the United States have the packagers there and is taken in bulk, therefore, we would be exempt from that tariff,” Valero said.
UPA general secretary in Andalusia, Jesús Cózar, has pointed to Europa Press that “not all products are going to be affected in the same way.” “There are other products that can be more harmed, such as table olive, specifically the black olive, or it can be wine or some other products,” he added.
The Secretary General of Organization of Coag Jaén and responsible for Olivar in the Executive of Coag Andalucía, Francisco Elvira, has launched a message of tranquility: “On the date we are, we have marketed much of the production of last year and the stockers we had of previous years. With the prices we have in origin, it is more than that tariff that has negotiated between the European Union and the United States”.
Large companies
On the other hand, the Great European Union industry, grouped around the Industrial Round Table (ERT), of which the main executives of Iberdrola, Telefónica, Ferrovial or Inditex are part, have expressed “caution support” to the tariff agreement. The ERT hopes that the US and the EU will dedicate its future efforts to achieve broader agreements that eliminate all the barriers to transatlantic trade and investment.
The companies of the United States active in the European Union, grouped in the United States Chamber of Commerce in the EU (AMCHAM EU), consider that the commercial agreement between the EU and the US offers relief to companies and provides greater certainty, despite the fact that the 15%tariff. For Amcham EU the parties should expand the number of sectors included in the list of “zero by zero” tariffs of the agreement, with the aim of creating a transatlantic zone free of tariffs.
