When in the middle of the month of June the Santos Cerdán scandal exploded within the PSOE, the Legislature saw its foundations and everyone in the Government agreed to point out a survival horizon: arrive as it was at the end of the political course and summer vacations. That goal, which seen with perspective could seem little ambitious, became for a few weeks in question. Because the coup was such for the president of the Government, and the implications of the fall of his trusted man so deep, that Pedro Sánchez considered the real possibility of resigning and calling elections. The more or less enthusiastic support of its parliamentary partners and the times of a judicial investigation that has not yet finished perimetering the case have allowed, however, that the Executive has managed to reach the edge of August. And the challenge is that the break serves as a firewall and allows you to take some air in September.

To do this, the strokes of the political road map that are drawn in Moncloa for the new course indicate three directions: social policies, budget negotiation and international agenda. For this last section, Sánchez reserves a handful of dates along the fall with some relevant quotes abroad. The planned script indicates the first one in the calendar for the month of September, with the visit of the Spanish president to Downing Street to meet with the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer. A meeting that will arrive after the historic agreement between the two countries that will eliminate the border fence of Gibraltar, milestone eclipsed in its day by the Cerdán scandal.

At the end of September, between 22 and 25, several transcendental summits, mainly for the impulse to the recognition of the Palestinian State by the international community, will take place in New York. Within the framework of high -level meetings at the United Nations General Assembly, the summit of the future, New York Climate Week and the UN Global Pact Leaders Summit will take place.

Already in October, and also with the conflict of Israel and Palestine in the background, in addition to the situation in Ukraine, the European Council will take place on the 23rd and 24th. And in November two new quotes of reach in foreign policy will arrive: the summit of the climate of Brazil, on the 6th and 7th, and the G-20 on the days 22 and 23, with a subsequent summit of the Member States of the European Union. In addition, it is planned that Sanchez also deploy a round of bilateral meetings that will complete the loaded international autumn agenda.

Social measures and budget negotiation

But that international agenda will also be conditioned, to a large extent, by the viability of a legislature in permanent question, a game that will be played in national politics. At the expense always of the news that arrive from the courts, the intention of the Executive is to reactivate a parliamentary negotiation with the group of parliamentary partners of Pedro Sánchez to explore the chances of success of carrying out the general budgets of the State.

After two consecutive exercises with extended accounts, the president has committed himself to present the budget project this year. Something that also promised last year and finally did not occur. On this occasion, and aware that it is the last opportunity of the Legislature but also that a parliamentary defeat that knocked down the accounts would be a political blow hardly tracing, in La Moncloa they explain that the negotiating machinery with the different groups will be activated on the return of the holidays. But they leave in the air take those accounts to Congress if the conversations do not predict a minimal possibility of success.

In the department of María Jesús Montero they ensure that there is a lot of advanced work of previous years in negotiations with the groups and that in some cases, such as PNV, EH Bildu, ERC or BNG, it would be a matter of “updating and finishing off” the commitments already outlined. But they admit that the complexity resides again, as throughout the legislature, in the most disky partners of the parliamentary majority that supports the Executive. That is, together and Podemos.

Both those of Carles Puigdemont and those of Ione Belarra have repeatedly expressed public that to reach a real negotiation on general state budgets, a series of political conditions in the form of commitments of the PSOE and the Government should occur. Some of them very difficult.

The Catalan independentistas, without an official interlocutor with the socialists from the resignation and imprisonment of Santos Cerdán, repeat that they have nothing new to sit down to negotiate with the government if there are not previously executed pending items of previous years. Or what is the same, 50,000 million euros.

On the part of Podemos, the negotiation is even discarded if on the table “there is one more to military expenditure, diplomatic and commercial relations with Israel are not broken, that genocidal state is not seized and the price of rentals is not lowered by law by law.”

As a prolegomeno of that negotiation, and as a formula to try to cohesive to the partners, the idea of the government is that September serves to resume the social agenda against the model represented by the right and the ultra -right and promote a package of measures of marked progressive character. Proposals of a social nature and in anti -corruption matters in search of the lost political initiative in favor of the opposition.

Approved in July the extension in three weeks of the permits paid for paternity and care, a measure required and promoted by Yolanda Díaz, the Socialists now prepare to advance their proposal for the abolition of prostitution after the known conversations between José Luis Ábalos and his advisor Koldo García.

The Government will also approve the reform of the tobacco law, which will include the expansion of smoke -free spaces such as the hospitality terraces, university campuses, teaching centers, sports facilities, sports facilities and external leisure areas. In addition, the idea is to promote the measures that he designed jointly with the Department of Anti -Corruption, Integrity and OECD Government to fight corruption. It is a state plan to fight corruption focused on crime prevention and strengthening corruption controls and including the creation of an independent public integrity agency. An organism that will assume key functions in the prevention, supervision and persecution of corrupt practices.

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