“Any country that aligns with the anti -American policies of the BRICS + will receive an additional 10%tariff.” Donald Trump's word, who stressed in his social truth network that “there will be no exceptions.” The threat of the leader of the Make America Great Again (Maga) Against the emerging markets club is overwhelming at a time when their partners grow and the BRICS + keep the doors to accept future adhesions. After their great expansion of 2023, in which Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and United Arab Emirates adhered, even if the Argentine of Javier Milei and Saudi Arabia would immediately continue without signature its admission PLACET. The last to move to his common house has been Indonesia, since January of this year.
Some analysts consider it a personal obsession, given the constant geostrategic attack of the tenant of the oval dispatch and its increasingly indissimulated unilateralism, a tactic with which it intends to mold a new world order where it perpetuate US domain.
If not, the crusade would lack every sense from the trump Against the BRICS +, a block that competes with the G-7 in world governance within the G-20, the forum that acquired gallons after the 2008 credit collapse to restore financial architecture. Too much hostility to be able to boost from the conclave that brings together the industrialized powers and the emerging markets any hint of universal consensus. Although the G-20 service sheet has more lights than shadows from multilateral optics. Following the command in the square granted by Barack Obama to remove the toxic assets created by the bank after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.
Not only for its advances in environmental matters, but in the geopolitical or prosecutor with their pact to impose the minimum tax of 15% on the benefits of companies and thus avoid the tax elusion of large corporations with their criteria of altering their official headquarters to avoid their tax obligations and redirect their income towards fiscal paradises or off-sho centers. Trump has broken the consensus forged by Joe Biden. Within his policy of ending any vestige of Democratic administration as he already demonstrated in his first mandate burying the Medicare – among other legislative initiatives – of Obama. Or now burying the subsidies to the renewable industry of its predecessor.
The response to Trump was swift. The BRICS+ with significant absences such as Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin were gathered in Rio de Janeiro. But with 10 other candidates – among them, Belarus, Nigeria, Thailand or Vietnam – participating in issues with voice, but without vote. Perhaps the replica of greatest draft was that of the host, Luiz Inázio Lula da Silva. The Brazilian president recalled that the BRICS+ are “sovereign” and do not want “emperor”, in reference to Trump's threat to impose an additional 10% tariff on nations that trade or commune with geopolitical initiatives of the emerging block.
In his opinion, the hallmark from the trump Breaking the free trade system is an “irresponsibility.” The valuation of Lula He had to seem offensive to the leader of the Grand Old Party (GOP) because almost no continuity solution advanced 50% tariffs on Brazilian products in a message in which he cited the “insidious attacks on free elections”, alluding to the trial against Jail Bolsonaro for attempted coup d'etat, which led to asset and real falls. To which Lula replied that it will not be allowed to “guard” and that the American unilateral measure will have “fulfilled replica.”
Also the South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, who on his recent visit to Washington ran into another dialectical ambush of Trump on account of the alleged “white persecution” in the country of the country of apartheidthe permanent search for “revenge” of the republican president against BRICS + was tilding to decide “deepening greater cooperation with the global south”, the wide compendium of middle and lower income countries that, mostly, feels disappointed with the abandonment of any hint of soft power and the doctrine of the Pax Americana or the aid to development by US diplomacy.
“We must assess the diversity of power centers in the world,” Ramaphosa recalled to Trump – and boost global governance. ”
India, the closest voice to Washington
The most restrained of the triad of the founding partners of the BRICs who went to Brazil was undoubted (NSE) of Mumbai after certifying in 2024 the overtaking Bursatile to Hong-Kong and turned India into the fourth financial center; Only to the USA, China and Japan.
Indian values have attracted a substantial portion of Wall Street capital leaks for the “economic policy of the White House. Despite Modi's harsh criticism against the American air attack against Iran.
The rupturist expectations of the BRICS+ have gained credibility in the face of the loss of the dollar's bellows. He Green ticket American has depreciated 10% since Trump's return to the White House and has been at its lowest level with respect to the most important basket of currencies in the world since 1973, almost at the end of Richard Nixon's mandate in which the American currency replaced the gold pattern. The currency reserves that central banks use to mitigate financial crisis episodes and, above all, the oil market are still dominated. But its weight as shelter and employment in international commercial businesses is diminishing.
The BRICS + want to open the melon melon. Or, in other words: generate your own common currency to end the hegemony of the dollar. Taking advantage, in addition, the high seizure of the markets before Trump's tariff adventures and the “chaotic” waterfall of executive orders, truces and fiscal pressure on raw materials such as aluminum, steel or copper, which just emulates the first two with another 50%tax. Or to sectors such as motoring. As well as the “tortuous” budget that will take a deficit of more than 6% the next decade and to the maximum a debt that exceeds 36.45 billion dollars, 124% of its GDP.
In fact, some analysts begin to perceive that the investment feeling, off during the days after the US attack against another partner of the BRICS + (Iran), must leave this geostrategic lethargy due to the impact of the new list of tariffs and threats to countries that do not culminate commercial agreements with Washington. Specifically “if the profits of the companies suffer,” he says to Bloomberg Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Chief of Investigation of Asset Assignment of Goldman Sachs, who predicts that “this July” will happen.
If so, “she clarifies-” the relaxation of the markets will give way to volatilities and setbacks of assets. ”
The tense calm of emerging markets
A clear thermometer that the strategy of wait and see of the BRICS + can work is the dollar. Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard professor and former chief economist of the IMF, stands out in Foreign Policy than the Green ticket “It takes a long time under strong national and international pressure” and that, in the immediate future, legislative initiatives Trumpist “They will take its toll, because fears on the health and stability of the US economy.”
Also-argument-for the American socio-political deterioration: “Up (as the current president does) the institutions, dismantle world trade or take the independence of the Federal Reserve, could boost the economy in the short term-it admits not without perplexity-but” in the next year and a half, we will see a recession and another inflationist spiral “and the Trump's reaction” will be to establish recipes frustration. ”
Above all, if, as Wall Street voices such as Ray Dalio, owner of Bridgewater, the American debt and the budgetary path point from the trump They cause the first default of the US history.
The great unknown, however, is that the BRICS+ partners succumb to their own amalgam of interest and their internal divisions. Formed by countries with authoritarian and liberal regimes, all also have particular interests when drawing and intercede in the global order. At the moment, the idea of creating a common currency that submits influence to the dollar seems like a utopia. Although some of its currencies, such as the Chinese renminbi – his unity of change abroad – have gained weight in international trade following the western sanctions against Russia and, specifically, their veto to use dollars in their commercial transactions.
En el Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) resumen la Real policy Current of the BRICS + in an eloquent way: they are looking for a united front against multilateral institutions, especially the G-20, despite the different criteria of several partners such as China and India, strategic rivals, which, even so, could ally allocy around the “contempt” shown by Trump towards them. Taking advantage of the force that gives them in the economic and monetary order to have 45% of the population and 35% of the global GDP and have quadrupled the direct foreign investment flows between 2001 and 2021.
Juha Jokela, director of Finnish Institute of International Affairs (Fiia), emphasizes that the growing geopolitical rivalry between the BRICS + and USA, to move the G-7, “would damage the entire multilateral framework.” And, above any institution, the G-20, no matter how much dynamics arise that contribute to the reconfiguration of the international chess board. Among others -Avanza Rogoff- “The hegemonic decline of the US”. In his opinion, the loss of a flash of the dollar is the best demonstration that “we have entered another world order.”
