A peace deal, or even a lasting ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, could be the biggest diplomatic achievement of Donald Trump's presidential term.
The details and steps for the agreement remain unclear, but the declared intention on the part of Israel and Hamas is already valuable. With the support of Arab countries and other regional powers, this agreement is the best opportunity to end the war after the Israeli breach of the ceasefire in March, which once again plunged Gaza into a bloody war that has left almost 68,000 dead, most of them civilians.
The first phase of the peace plan, as Trump called it in a post on his Truth Social social network on Wednesday, is clear: the return of the hostages held by Hamas in exchange for a partial withdrawal of the Israeli army. But finding all the hostages can be difficult, as can managing the Israeli withdrawal.
Trump expressed himself in his usual tone of hyperbole: “ALL hostages will be released very soon and Israel will withdraw its troops to an agreed line as the first steps towards a Strong, Lasting and Eternal Peace. All parties will be treated equitably!”
There is much left to discuss. The 20-point plan proposed by the US Government attempts to combine the conditions for a ceasefire with the negotiation of a lasting peace, but thorny issues, such as the future of Hamas and its disarmament, along with the Israeli vision for the future of Gaza, have yet to be realized.
We have been to this point before. The Trump administration was in a hurry to negotiate an end to the war even before taking office, and the hastily organized ceasefire signed in January collapsed due to disagreements over the pace of hostage release.
Still, the present moment is crucial. Trump was speaking Wednesday afternoon at a roundtable against Antifa when Secretary of State Marco Rubio passed him a note. “Very close. We need you to approve a message in Truth Social soon so you can announce the agreement first,” it read.
Nobody has said that the war had to end with peace agreements in the style of the Oslo Accords in the 90s or with political deliberations.
This is a different time: an openly partisan and mercurial American president who has nevertheless used his unpredictability to keep both his allies and his enemies in suspense. Trump is also said to be motivated by a desire to become the first American president to receive the Nobel Peace Prize since Barack Obama.
The award will be presented on Friday and the desire to give the American president a victory has driven political considerations in Washington and across the Middle East.
The remaining tensions are evident. Hamas called on Trump and other parties to “ensure that the Israeli occupation government fully complies with the terms of the agreement.” The fear is that Israel will resume its offensive once the hostages are returned.
“We will never abandon the national rights of our people until freedom, independence and self-determination are achieved,” the group said, indirectly referring to the desire to create a Palestinian state, which has been rejected by Netanyahu and largely abandoned by the White House.
Netanyahu also has to deal with political considerations. On Thursday he said he would “call on the Government to approve the agreement and bring home all the beloved hostages.” He must manage the response from right-wing members of his government, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who have threatened to overthrow the government in the event of a ceasefire.
Trump has attempted to overcome those considerations through brute force, threatening that “hell” would break loose in Gaza against Hamas if his desire for peace was not met. When Netanyahu expressed doubts about the deal, Axios reported that he told the Israeli leader: “I don't know why you're always so fucking negative… This is a victory. Accept it.”
The president of the United States is said to be planning to travel to the region this weekend to sign the agreement. This is your moment, and you may need all your personal brand and influence to avoid another failure of negotiations and a return to fighting, which would be a diplomatic defeat for your Administration.