CIS estimate – September 2025
Voting CIS estimate (in % on the total valid vote)
The PSOE recovers after the summer all the advantage he lost after the outbreak of the Santos Cerdán case, according to the barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS). Not only that, but it opens a nine -point gap with the PP in the first September barometer, after the news that in recent weeks they have transcended on the business of Cristóbal Montoro's office when he was Minister of Finance with Mariano Rajoy and after the management of the fires that ravaged a good part of the peninsula this August.
The formation of Pedro Sánchez would win today the elections with 32.7% of the votes, almost six more than the 27% they obtained in the July report, the last of the last year. The PP falls three points to 23.7% and goes from being tied with the Socialists to be far from being able to win elections. It is, in fact, the worst result of those of Alberto Núñez Feijóo so far from the legislature, ten points below what he obtained in the elections of July 23, 2023.
Vox fails to recover all that vote flow and against loses more than one point with respect to Julio to stay at 17.3% of voting intention. The votes of the PP do not go to other extreme right formations, such as Alise Pérez, which also lowers a tenth, to a meager 1.6%.
To the left of the PSOE, things remain practically the same. Adding adds one tenth in these two months and stays at 7.9. That percentage is robbed of Podemos, which at the beginning of the political course is in 4.3% of voting intention. The sum of both forces shows a practically identical result that obtained the coalition when it attended together in the 23J elections.
The PSOE obtains a point more than in those elections despite the fact that its loyalty of vote is very low, only above add. Just 65.5% of voters would deposit the ballot according to the most sympathy vote study of the CIS. Vox keeps 79.2% of its voters and the PP to 72.8%, with a 15% escape to the extreme right. Socialists lose most of their votes in favor of other smaller parties, abstention or blank or null vote. Add loses more than half of its voters: 28.7% go to Podemos and 9.2% to the PSOE.
The PSOE obtains a 23.7% direct voting intention
As for the direct intention of vote, without the so -called statistical “kitchen”, the PSOE obtains 23.7% of the support, while the PP stays at 16.4%. Vox obtains 12.8% of the direct voting intention, while adding, 5.6% and Podemos, 3.2%.
In the previous barometer, the two main matches appeared practically tied in this section, with the PP even slightly above, with a 18.8, five tenths above the socialists. Meanwhile, Vox was in 14%.
Sanchez continues as the most valued leader
The president of the Government remains the most valued leader, with a note of 4.23, far from that of the results of the 23J. The second vice president, Yolanda Díaz, follows her closely but is also far from her best moments. Feijóo drags a continuous downward trend since 23J and is almost at its worst moment of the legislature. And Abascal, which reached its best note in recent times in the last barometer, with 3.15, this month slightly lowers to 2.93.
