
Image source, Getty Images
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- Author, Wyre Davies
- Author's title, BBC News
In March, when turning their backs on a high -fire process that was giving results, the Israeli prime minister made a decision that some commentators described as “political suicide.”
The Alto El Fuego agreement in Gaza, negotiated by Donald Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, even before the US president assumed his second mandate, led to the release of dozens of hostages kidnapped by Hamas, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners of Israeli prisons.
The next stage consisted of the return of more hostages home and a gradual withdrawal of the Israeli troops of Gaza, before a negotiated end of the war.
Tired of the conflict, Israelis and Palestinians contemplated the end of the most destructive war in its common history, marked by fighting.
But Benjamin Netanyahu didn't want war to end.
When ordering the resumption of attacks in Gaza, the prime minister declared that the fighting would continue until Hamas was “completely destroyed.”
The return and saved from the remaining hostages seemed to be a secondary consideration. (The consequences for the civilian population in Gaza themselves did not deserve mention).
Many Israelis, especially the families of the hostages, were outraged.
They accused Netanyahu of putting their own political survival to the safety of their relatives and the common good of the nation.
Image source, Getty Images
The popularity of “Bibi” in the surveys collapsed and had difficulty maintaining the cohesion of a disarticulated government, underpinned by hard line ministers of the extreme right and orthodox religious parties.
Three months later, Netanyahu gloats in the glory of a spectacular military victory over his nemesis, Iran. It is said that he is now considering the possibility of calling early elections and a new mandate as prime minister.
In a press conference earlier, the 75 -year -old leader, who is already the Israeli leader with more years in office, said he still has “many missions” to fulfill and that he will try to do it while “the people” of Israel wishes.
Later this same last week, he presented the alleged destruction of the Iranian nuclear program as a “window of opportunity” that “should not miss”, and suggested that only he could ensure the “liberation of hostages and the defeat of Hamas”, after which he would reach broader regional agreements.
But calling early elections will imply a great risk and, according to the latest surveys, Netanyahu has not enjoyed such a significant “recovery” after the 12 -day conflict with Iran as I could have expected.
“Trust”
In a fractured political system, where the formation of coalitions is key in the KNESET -which has 120 seats -, the Netanyahu Likud party would be far from reaching the majority by themselves and could have difficulty getting the support of smaller matches on the right, according to the latest survey of the newspaper of the newspaper of the newspaper Ma'ariv.
The same survey suggested that a significant majority, 59% of the Israelis, wants to cease the fighting in Gaza, in exchange for hostages.
Almost half of the respondents, around 49%, also said that the only reason why Netyahu continues war is their own political considerations.
“She is a very skilled politician,” says Professor Tamar Hermann, principal researcher at the Institute for the Democracy of Israel. “There is no more skilled politician in Israel.”
But, he adds, “trust” is a big problem for Netanyahu.
A political leader who has changed posture so many times to hold on to power simply no longer has the confidence of most Israeli.
According to a new survey, which will soon publish the Institute for Israel's democracy of Professor Hermann, Netanyahu “does not exceed 50% in terms of Israelis that show total or partial confidence in it.”
In a way, says Professor Hermann, deciding to convene early elections “is an even higher risk (for Netanyahu) to attack Iran, because in the Middle East one really does not know where he will be within six months.” This is because, despite the fact that his military commitment in Iran seems to be paying off, there is an elephant in the corner of the Being Hall of Benjamin Netanyahu.
In fact, it could be said that a small herd of elephants threatens to frustrate the hopes of the prime minister to obtain another mandate.
Accusations of corruption
Next week he must testify in a high profile criminal case in which he faces charges for political corruption, including bribery and fraud.
Prime Minister's attempts to delay the hearings of the Superior Court again due to his busy schedule and the special emergency state (for the war with Iran) were rejected at the end of last week.
Netanyahu and his supporters have repeatedly tried to present the judicial process against him as part of a “political witch hunt”, but in an increasingly polarized society, his opponents are equally determined to face justice.
Apparently to find out late from the legal problems of “Bibi”, President Trump said that Netanyahu was a “great hero” and a “warrior” whose judgment should be “immediately canceled” or, at least, he should receive an pardon.
Recall that it is the same US president who, just a few days before, had publicly criticized the Israeli prime minister when the high fire agreement with Iran threatened to crumble before starting.
But Trump's last intervention has been qualified as reckless and useless by many in Israel.
The opposition leader, Yair Lapid, said he should not “intervene in the legal process of an independent state.”
His apparently contradictory position on Israel and his attempt to intervention in the legal case of Netanyahu was equivalent to “treating us as a banana republic,” says Professor Hermann.
Image source, Getty Images
In the international sphere, many Israelis accuse Netanyahu of having harmed Israel's global position and his economic perspectives by unnecessarily prolonging the war in Gaza, despite the fact that many exgenerals have affirmed that Israel's defense forces (FDI) have achieved everything that is militarily possible in Gaza.
It should not be forgotten, either, that the International Criminal Court still has arrest orders issued against the prime minister – and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant – for alleged war crimes and humanity in Gaza, where more than 55,000 people have died in the Israel War against Hamas.
The Israel government, together with Netanyahu and Gallant, flatly rejects the accusations.
In short, according to most commentators, it would be difficult to imagine the call for new elections in Israel while the war in Gaza continues and Israeli hostages remain captive.
But many of Netanyahu's critics and opponents have discarded it prematurely over the years and, without a doubt, they have ever learned to never doubt about their next step.
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