
Image source, Maxar Technologies via Getty Images
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- Author, Nadine Yousif
- Author's title, BBC News
The US attacks against Iran nuclear facilities did not destroy the country's nuclear program and probably only delayed it months, according to a preliminary intelligence evaluation of the Pentagon on the attack.
The enriched uranium reserves of the Islamic Republic were not eliminated in Saturday's bombings, according to sources familiar with the evaluation of the Defense Intelligence Agency to the CBS chain.
The White House said the evaluation, “totally wrong”, was filtered by “a low level failure in the intelligence community.”
And President Donald Trump declared again that Iran's nuclear facilities were “completely destroyed” and accused the means of “trying to denigrate one of the most successful military attacks in history.”
The United States has 18 intelligence agencies, which sometimes prepare contradictory reports according to their mission and specialization area.
For example, the country's intelligence community has not yet agreed on how COVID-19 originated.
It is possible that future intelligence reports include more information that shows a different level of damage to the facilities.
According to CBS, officials familiar with the report warned that it was a preliminary evaluation that could change as more information about the sites is available.
Nor is it clear with what level of trust the conclusions of the report were made.
The United States attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran (Fordo, Natanz and Isfahán) with antibunker pumps capable of penetrating 18m concrete or 61m of earth before exploiting.
However, sources familiar with the intelligence evaluation of the Pentagon affirm that Iranian centrifugers are practically intact and that the impact was limited to superficial structures.
The bombs sealed the inputs of two nuclear facilities and some infrastructure was destroyed or damaged, but much of the facilities, located at great depth, escaped the impact of the explosions.
Anonymous sources informed US media that it is estimated that the attack only delayed Iran “a few months, at most”, and that the resumption of its nuclear program could depend on the time late the country to dig and perform repairs.
Sources also confirmed to CBS that part of Iran's enriched uranium reserves were transferred before the attacks, according to the intelligence evaluation.
It was believed that the GBU-57A/B MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator), the American pump of 14,000 kg was the only weapon capable of destroying the underground enrichment facilities of Uranium of Iran.
Tehran has always affirmed that its nuclear program has peaceful purposes.
Image source, Reuters
In the hours after Saturday's attacks, General Dan Caine, head of the Joint Chiefs, told the press that evaluating the damage to the facilities would take time.
However, he added that “the three sites suffered extremely serious damage and destruction.”
The satellite images showed six recent craters grouped around two entrance points of the Nuclear Fino installation, as well as gray dust and debris.
But the images do not clarify the magnitude of the damage suffered in the installation under the surface.
Hassan Abedini, a political deputy director of the Iranian state transmitter, said that the three facilities attacked by the United States had been evacuated “long ago” and that Iran “did not suffer an important blow because the materials had already been removed.”
On the other hand, both US officials and Israelis celebrated the mission as a success.
In a statement on Tuesday, the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, indicated that “based on everything we have seen, and I have seen everything, our bombing campaign annulled Iran's ability to create nuclear weapons.”
“Anyone who says that the bombs were not devastating only tries to undermine the president and the success of the mission,” Hegseth said.
The American congressman Brad Sherman, a democratic member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives, told the BBC that the Trump administration was using vague terms to declare victory, when it is not yet clear what the attack mission achieved.
He added that the Administration has not said if the attacks destroyed Iran's ability to make weapons with its uranium and its uranium enrichment centrifugers, or if they diminished their reserves that, he said, would be enough to create nine nuclear weapons.
“When they say that the program must be destroyed, they do not even say if it is about destroying the centrifugers and the ability to create uranium in the future or if it is about destroying the reserves,” Sherman told the BBC.
“All indications, including the declaration of Vice President Vance, indicate that we do not believe that we reach the reservations,” he said and pointed to images that show trucks addressing one of the facilities days before the attacks.
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, declared Tuesday that since hostilities with Iran began on June 13, Israel has managed to stop Tehran's nuclear ambitions, as well as destroy its missile arsenal.
“We have eliminated two immediate existential threats: the threat of nuclear annihilation and the threat of annihilation with 20,000 ballistic missiles,” Netanyahu said in a video issued by his office.
A report from the Saudi news site to Hadath, which cites an anonymous Israeli source, says that Israel believes that most of Iran's enriched uranium is buried under the rubble.
David Albright, president of the Institute for International Science and Security and expert in the Secret Development of Nuclear Weapons, said that the damage he suffered will go with US attacks means that “he will take a long time, investment and energy” to restore his nuclear program.
In an X publication, Albright added that Iran is “under intense scrutiny and observation by the United States and Israel”, and that the risk of new attacks is running if they try to reconstruct its facilities.
On Monday, Iran responded to US bombings by launching a missile attack against the Al-Edeid air base in Qatar, where thousands of US soldiers are located.
The attack was largely intercepted and no victims or injuries were reported.
From the Iranian retaliation, a high fire was established between Iran and Israel negotiated by President Trump and Qatari mediators.
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