
Image source, Getty Images
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- Author, Redacción*
- Author's title, BBC News World
It is one of the most important and strategic maritime steps in the world.
Around a fifth of the global oil consumption passes through the Ormuz Strait, a commercial route that connects the medium east crude producers with key markets in the Asia Pacific region, Europe and North America.
It is a narrow channel that, at its closest point, separates Oman from Iran for just 33 kilometers.
The critical maritime course for global trade is now in the center of the gaze of the markets.
After the unprecedented attacks of the United States to three nuclear facilities in Iran last Saturday, eight days after Israel deployed the greatest military action against the Islamic Republic, the world is expectant to Iran's reaction and everything seems to indicate that the Ormuz Strait is one of the letters he could play.
The Iranian Parliament has already approved a measure that allows Iran to close the step, although the final decision corresponds to the Supreme National Security Council.
Now it is the United States that has asked China to prevent that threat from being completed. But what is the strategic importance of this Strait and what consequences could an eventual closure have?
A critical step
Limited to the north by Iran and south by Oman and the United Arab Emirates (EAU), this corridor – which has only 50 km wide at its entrance and exit, and approximately 33 km at its closest point – connects the Gulf with the Arabic Sea.
The channel has two maritime routes, and each one measures just 3km.
Beyond its extension, the Strait is deep enough to allow the passage of the world's largest oil ships.
In the first half of 2023, around 20 million barrels of oil passed daily through the Ormuz Strait, according to estimates of the US Energy Information Administration. UU. (EIA), which represents an annual energy trade of almost US $ 600 billion.
This makes it the most important step for world oil production, including the crude oil of the organization of oil export countries (OPEC), which make up Saudi Arabia, Iran, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, as well as most of Qatar's liquefied natural gas.
Any interruption in the Strait would restrict trade and impact an increase in oil prices worldwide.
But its eventual closure would have a particular impact on China, who is the largest global Iranian oil buyer and maintains a close relationship with Tehran.
With that argument was that the Secretary of State of the United States, Marco Rubio, asked China to intervene and prevent eventual blockade by Iran.
“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to speak (with Iran) about it, because they depend largely on the Ormuz Strait for its oil,” he said in an interview with Fox News on Sunday.
Image source, Getty Images
“If they close the Strait … it will be an economic suicide for them. We have options to deal with that, but other countries should also pay attention. They would affect them economically much more than us,” he added.
What would be the impact of closing the Strait?
The former head of the British Intelligence Agency Mi6, Alex Younger, told the BBC that the worst possible scenario in the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel included a blockade of the Ormuz Strait.
“Closing the Strait would obviously be a huge economic problem, given the effect it would have on the price of oil,” he said.
It would be an “unknown territory,” according to Bader Al-Saif, an attached professor at the University of Kuwait specialized in the geopolitics of the Arabian Peninsula.
“It would have direct consequences in world markets, because we would see an increase in the price of oil and a very nervous reaction of the bags to what is happening,” Al-Saif told the BBC.
Of course, it would also affect Gulf countries, whose economies depend largely on energy exports.
Saudi Arabia, for example, uses the Strait to export around 6 million barrels of crude oil per day -more than any neighboring country -according to investigations of the Vortexa analysis firm.
How could they close the Strait?
The United Nations standards allow countries to exercise control up to 12 nautical miles (13.8 terrestrial miles) from its coast.
This means that, at its closest point, Ormuz and its navigation routes are completely within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman.
If they will try to block the approximately 3,000 ships that travel through the Strait every month, one of the most effective ways to do it – according to experts – would be by placing mines through rapid attacks of attack and submarines.
The regular Navy of Iran and the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard body (IRGC) could, in theory, launch attacks against foreign warships and commercial vessels.
However, large military ships could, in turn, become easy targets for air attacks in the United States.
Image source, Getty Images
The rapid boats of Iran are usually armed with anti -men's missiles, and the country also operates a variety of surface ships, semi -submersible and submarine vessels.
Experts agree that Iran could temporarily block the narrow, but many are equally convinced that the United States and its allies could quickly restore maritime traffic by military means.
Uu. He has already done it before.
At the end of the 1980s, during the war between Iran and Iraq, the attacks on oil facilities climbed to become a “oil war war”, in which both countries attacked neutral ships to exert economic pressure.
The Kuwaitis oil tankers transported Iraqi oil were especially vulnerable and, finally, American warships began to escort them through the Gulf, which became the largest operation of naval convoys since World War II.
Will the Strait block?
Although Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Ormuz Strait in previous conflicts, this action has never carried out.
Perhaps the closest moment was during the Oil War at the end of the 80s, but even then the traffic through the Ormuz Strait was never serious.
If this time they will fulfill their threat, the result could be different.
Although China has not yet responded to the call from the United States, it is very unlikely that Beijing will receive an increase in oil prices or interruptions in navigation routes, and could use its diplomatic weight to deter the Iranian government from carrying out the blockade.
Vandana Hari energy analyst said that the Iranian government has “little to win and too much to lose” if you close the Strait.
“Iran runs the risk of becoming enemies to their neighbors producers of oil and gas in the Gulf, and provoking the anger of its main market, China, by interrupting traffic in the narrow,” Hari told the BBC.
China, in particular, buys more oil from Iran than any other nation: its imports from that country exceeded 1.8 million barrels per day last month, according to data from the Vortexa analysis company.
Other important Asian economies – including India, Japan and South Korea – also depend largely on crude oil that passes through the Strait.
Image source, Getty Images
On Monday, the Chinese government said that US attacks had damaged Washington's credibility and asked for a high immediate fire.
China's ambassador to the UN, Fu Cong, said that all parties should contain “the impulse of force,” according to a state television report.
In an editorial, the Beijing state newspaper, Global Times, also said that the participation of the United States in Iran “has further complicated and destabilized the situation in the Middle East” and that it was taking the conflict to an “uncontrollable state.”
*With information from Adam Hancock, BBC business reporter, and Gavin Butler, of the Persian BBC service.
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