Image source, Getty Images
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- Author, Caio I want
- Author's title, Editor, BBC News Brazil
A message that the president of the United States, Donald Trump, issued on Wednesday impacted strongly in Brazil and led the relationship between both nations to the lowest point than you have.
Trump promised to impose tariffs on Brazil up to 50%.
He accused the South American country of “attacks” to American technology companies and carrying out a “witch hunt” against former right -wing president Jair Bolsonaro, his long -standing ally that faces a judicial process for his alleged participation in a plot to annul the Brazilian elections of 2022.
The measure occurs after a new round of political clashes between Trump and the current Brazilian president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, stating even more a relationship that was already tense in itself.
Trump had previously threatened the members of the BRICS Group, of which Brazil is part, with tariffs, accusing them of antiestadounidan postures.
The block includes India, Russia and China, and has grown until Iran. It was designed to counteract US's influence on the world.
Lula responded to Trump's tariff threat in an X publication, writing that “Brazil is a sovereign nation with independent institutions and will not accept any type of guardianship.”
Trump has implemented an extensive tariff program – or import taxes – since he returned to power in January.
He argues that these will promote the American manufacturing industry and protect employment, although he has also used them for political purposes.
This also seems true in the case of Brazil.
The Lula government said it would probably correspond to reciprocal tariffs for US products. However, it is not clear how this could be given or if Brazil even has the economic capacity to face the consequences of an escalation.
Meanwhile, many Brazilians wonder why Trump has attacked his country and how this saga could end up developing.
Defending an old ally
Image source, Reuters
Brazil is one of the few countries that buys more from the US of what it sells, a situation that, in theory, fits Trump's commercial agenda.
Given this imbalance, many Brazilian analysts and politicians interpreted the tariff threat as a manifest gesture of support to Jair Bolsonaro.
This was highlighted by the letter that Trump made public on Wednesday, harshly criticizing the Brazilian government and the trial against Bolsonaro that currently hears in the Supreme Court and revolves around an alleged attempt at the coup d'etat occurred two years ago.
Politicians in Brazil already expected Trump to offer some kind of support to Bolsonaro, but not on this scale.
On January 8, 2023, hundreds of supporters of Bolsonaro broke into the Congress, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace of Brazil, in an apparent attempt to reverse the elections that Lula had won a few months before.
Bolsonaro denies any connection with that event, which many considered a Brazilian version of attacks on the US Capitol, perpetrated by Trump supporters two years before. Trump was also investigated after the disturbances in the US. And subsequently condemned those who tried to process it.
Bolsonaro supporters have been asking for some kind of support for Trump for months. His son Eduardo was absent from the Brazilian Congress, where he serves as a deputy, and moved to the USA.
Regular Mar-A-Lago, he has sought support for his father in Trump's intimate circle and in his magician movement (Make America Great Again).
In another part of his letter, considered as a firm support for Bolsonaro, Trump accused the Brazilian government of “insidious attacks on free elections and the fundamental right to freedom of expression of Americans”, including censorship of the “US social networks platforms.”
As part of an ongoing investigation into the propagation of misinformation in the country, the Supreme Court of Brazil has ordered in recent years the blockade of several social media accounts, many of them belonging to Bolsonaro supporters.
Impulse to Bolsonaro
Image source, Getty Images
The Brazilian authorities and companies are running to calculate the possible economic impact of the tariffs that were announced, but the political consequences could also be huge.
Trump's words suggest that Bolsonaro has a political closeness with the US president that few Brazilian or Latin American politicians could dream.
The letter will be seen as a powerful support of Bolsonaro, who wishes to run again to the presidency, despite the fact that the country's highest electoral court has forbidden to do so until 2030.
The former president's supporters have taken political benefit from the threat of tariffs, suggesting that the fault firmly falls on Lula, the current president.
“Lula put the ideology before the economy, and this is the result. The responsibility falls to those who hold power. The narratives will not solve the problem,” said São Paulo governor, Tarcísio de Freitas, an unconditional ally of Bolsonaro.
However, some analysts and politicians claim that, over time, Trump's gesture could be counterproductive to Bolsonaro.
The US is the second most important commercial partner in Brazil, only surpassed by China.
And some of the most affected sectors could be seen by a new round of American tariffs are closely aligned with the political base of Bolsonaro, in particular agribusiness.
There is a growing concern for the possible impact on Brazilian exports of oranges, coffee and beef to the US.
Salvation for Lula?
Image source, Getty Images
Instead of playing Bolsonaro, Trump's tariff threat could serve as lifeguard for Lula, who has been dealing with the fall of his popularity and difficulties to deal with Congress.
A survey published in May suggested that 55% of Brazilians disapprove of Trump. And it is unlikely that a new wave of tariffs change that opinion.
Just after Trump's announcement, Lula and other members of the Brazilian left reacted with a nationalist tone, speaking of sovereignty and trying to blame Bolsonaro for the possible economic consequences of tariffs.
But reactions to Trump's threats have also been mostly negative among center politicians.
“No citizen, especially the representatives chosen by the people, can tolerate a foreign aggression against Brazil, regardless of the alleged justification. It is time for true patriotism,” Alessandro Vieira, a senator of Centro, wrote, who usually maintains a critical position against Lula.
Some analysts argue that this could generate a political support effect for Lula, who urgently needs a political impulse.
“Even Lula's critics could interpret Trump's action as an attack on national sovereignty and the independence of the Judiciary,” said Oliver Stuenkel, professor at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV) and a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment For International Peace Studies Center in Washington.
The presidential elections of Brazil in October 2026 are still far away, but some analysts are already comparing the situation with that of Canada, where a right -wing candidate who had initially compared with Trump lost to an opponent of the center who campaigned openly against the US leader.
As Bolsonaro is incapacitated to present himself, his allies are already discussing which candidate will represent the Brazilian right at the polls.
Thousands of people began to share memes on social networks, where much of the political debate develops, with possible candidates to receive the support from Bolsonaro, often with criticism of Trump's decision.
One showed Tarcísio, governor of São Paulo and probable candidate, with a Trump Maga cap.
With his threat of tariffs, Trump has caused a possible storm not only for the economy of Brazil, but also for his political future.
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