Premier League: cursed leader before the New Year, does Arsenal finally have the weapons to win the title?

Second for the last three seasons, Arsenal are at the top of the English championship before entering the 19th day marking the halfway point of the season, Tuesday.

Arsenal players collapsed in their area, after Aston Villa’s winning goal (2-1) in the last minute, on December 6. The image went around the networks. An epic picture, ending a series of 18 matches without defeat, which evoked either the rage to win of a future champion, or the distress of an eternal second. The Gunners recovered well, winning their next three matches, not without difficulty (2-1 against Wolves, 1-0 at Everton and 2-1 against Brighton), to retain the Premier League leadership. At the dawn of their revenge against the Villans, Tuesday December 30, they are two points ahead of Manchester City and three over their recent tormentors.

Arsenal has been chasing the title of English champion for 21 years and the legendary coronation of the “Invincibles” of Henry, Vieira, Pirès and others in 2003-2004. Since then, the Londoners have nine podiums but have mostly failed to finish in second place over the last three seasons. Since the start of the Premier League era, inaugurated in 1992, they have topped the table four times at Christmas before this season: in 2002-2003, 2007-2008, 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. Each time, the title eluded them. Conversely, Manchester City have never lost a title race under Pep Guardiola, even winning four of their six coronations without being at the top of the standings in January or February.

During the 2022-2023 financial year, the Citizens had gone 16 games without defeat, including 15 victories, to make up for an eight-point deficit on the Gunners and steal the title. Again the following year, the Skyblues finishing the championship with nine consecutive victories to top Arsenal. This season, the Gunners’ lead has already started to crumble, going from seven to two points since matchday 12.

After these bad omens, Arsenal has more than one reason for hope. The 293.5 million euros spent this summer allowed the gunners to strengthen each line: Cristhian Mosquera and Piero Hincapié provided proud services in the middle, Martin Zubimendi is already unbreakable in the midfield alongside Declan Rice (17 starts in 18 days), and Eberechi Eze like Noni Madueke brought the creativity that the team often lacked last year. Only Viktor Gyökeres has not fully lived up to expectations, with just five goals scored in the Premier League.

“We have put together a team that I believe is the best to give us the chance to win the Premier League and the Champions League”praised, bluntly, Mikel Arteta at a press conference on December 5. The summer additions first made it possible to patch up an eleven regularly amputated by the 33 injuries suffered by the Gunners this season, the highest total in the championship.

But the Spanish technician is taking full advantage of this new bench depth. With 4.22 changes per match and 23 minutes granted on average to each starter, according to the statistics site Opta, Mikel Arteta has never called so much on those he appoints as his “finishers”a term more frequently used in rugby and dear to Fabien Galthié.

A reassuring sign in view of the frenetic pace that awaits them, the Londoners are less dependent on their individualities than Manchester City, where Erling Haaland provides almost half of the goals (19 out of 43 in the Premier League).

Recruitment seems even more successful compared to that of the reigning champion, Liverpool, where the very expensive Jeremie Frimpong, Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak are struggling to be efficient and consistent. The new blood has allowed the Gunners to diversify a sometimes stereotypical possession game in recent years, adding formidable offensive transitions to their range: no team has carried out as many direct attacks this season (44), and none has managed as many passes behind the opposing defense (66).

New weapons which do not erase the strengths established by the Gunners for several years: a hegemonic mastery of possession (59.1% on average, second in the championship), set pieces which have become a real signature (ten goals) and, more than ever, the best defense in England. Arsenal have only conceded 11 goals in 18 days, and are by far the team that suffers the fewest shots (132, compared to 169 for Manchester City, second in this ranking) and the fewest shots on target (40, compared to 58 for City, second).

The fundamentals remain strong, in line with Mikel Arteta’s vision: “We must ensure that, as we evolve, we maintain what we do best by making the changes that can bring us great added value”he explained at a press conference at the start of the season. Beyond their tactical and technical qualities, the Gunners have displayed exemplary resilience and tenacity since the start of the season: they have scored five goals in added time, more than any other team in the Premier League, and have not given up a single point en route after opening the scoring.

All without falling into excess commitment which has sometimes done them a lot of harm: in addition to the sporting rankings, Arsenal sits at the top of the fair play rankings with no expulsions and only 24 yellow cards, while their six red cards had greatly penalized them in 2024-2025. Details that can turn a season around, or even ward off a curse.